Climate Change and Election Manifestos: How ready are our Parties to Lead?

Michael Sutcliffe and Sue Bannister (Directors: City Insight (Pty) Ltd)

Every single day we receive graphic warnings of the way in which climate variability is impacting disastrously on the lives of people.  The dramatic scenes from Dubai and other parts of the Gulf region a few weeks back showed the effects of an intense rainstorm with over 400 flights being cancelled, hundreds of planes diverted and chaotic scenes around the city.  These heavy rains were the highest ever recorded in the UAE, flooding portions of major highways and the world’s busiest Dubai International Airport. Who would have thought this would happen?

Back in South Africa we continue to have to mop up after particularly harsh weather.  As Professors Stefan Grab and David Nash have argued, the disastrous flood that hit Durban in April 2022 was the most catastrophic natural disaster yet recorded in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in collective terms of lives lost, homes and infrastructure damaged or destroyed and economic impact.

Overall, our governmental responses to this climate variability have varied, and in the case of eThekwini, significant criticism has been made of the municipality’s lack of preparedness to respond.  The municipality has also failed to timeously spend the monies allocated to it from national government to address the damage caused by the April 2022 floods. To date some families are still displaced.  Additional work is ongoing, some of which has been affected by additional storms.

In the second half of 2023 there were over 80 serious such incidents in six of our provinces, with initial national funding of over R300 million provided to give emergency support to over 10 000 persons affected through incidents including fires, floods, heavy rainfall, gale force winds.  The longer term support in these cases will amount to many billions of Rands.

These disasters require continuous and integrated multi sectoral, multi-disciplinary processes of planning and implementation of measures aimed at amongst others preventing and reducing risk.

There is no doubt that in this election season we need to ask of all political parties: what it is that they feel should be done to address the issue of climate change going forward?  A scan of the manifestos of the major parties shows significant variability across the parties.

The ANC, for example, argues for the need to work with other countries in the fight against climate

change, global poverty and inequality in line with applicable international resolutions. The ANC’s manifesto proposes ways to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including:  “A just transition to a cleaner, greener future can lead to new jobs and secure the competitiveness of our exports…Prioritise green technologies, energy efficiency, waste management, climate-smart agriculture and infrastructure  and eco-friendly production processes to ensure long-term sustainability. This includes developing and executing a plan to become a world player in green hydrogen, battery and electric vehicle production…Provide resources to maintain ageing infrastructure to prevent fire and other disasters.”

The IFP argues that “The next ten years in human history will be the most crucial for our survival on this planet. The world is facing a triple environmental crisis, which includes biodiversity loss, climate disruption, and ever-increasing pollution. The proliferation of single use plastics has contributed significantly to this growing environmental crisis, with millions of tons of plastic waste ending up in our oceans, rivers and landfills yearly….Engage with stakeholders, including workers, unions, communities and businesses to develop policies and strategies that promote a fair and equitable transition to a sustainable future.”

The EFF suggests it “will officially adopt the civil society-driven one million climate jobs’ initiative as a

government programme. Through this initiative, the EFF government will create one million jobs aimed at transitioning South Africa from wholly coal-based energy sources to a fair mix of energy sources comprising fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy. The EFF government will reduce carbon emissions by 10% by 2029 and will renegotiate our Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) which includes components on climate adaptation and mitigation as well as support requirements for both…The EFF government will progressively introduce carbon taxes as one additional tool in the fight for sustainable development”.

The DA provides the least detail in their manifesto to climate change, arguing that it would be “Committing to achieving net zero carbon emissions to reduce the impact of energy generation on the climate. We will achieve this by diversifying the energy mix.”

What is certain though, is that there can be no doubt that one of the biggest risks we have to deal with going forward is that of climate variability and change.  This includes dealing with the following, all of which will have serious impacts on people and infrastructure:

• Changes in temperature extremes and averages (temperatures for most areas of South Africa are expected to increase, with more extreme heat and extreme cold events.);
• Changes in precipitation (with some areas having increases, whilst most of the country will have lower average rainfall);
• Increase in extreme weather events (strong wind, lightening, heavy rain, and flash flooding); and
• Sea Level rise which can impact on ground water resources and other infrastructure.

In addition to the requirement for new infrastructure, there is also a need to assess all existing infrastructure to understand how vulnerable it is to climate change and whether it can adequately deal with the increased demands to be placed on it.

This climate variability affects our lives in different ways. In addition, the different parts of our country need varied strategies and action plans to address effects as diverse as destruction of strategic infrastructure, reduction of water, worsening water quality, increased diseases, blocked stormwater and sewerage systems, damage to property due to sea level rise, adaption to changing crop types, reduced grazing land, etc.

Some of our municipalities, such as eThekwini and Cape Town, have undertaken research and developed their own climate action plans.  Cape Town focusses attention on urban cooling and heat responsiveness; water security and drought readiness; water sensitivity, flood readiness and storm management; coastal management and resilience; managing fire risk and responsiveness; spatial and resource inclusivity; carbon-neutral energy for work creation and economic development; zero-emission buildings and precincts; mobility for quality of life and livelihoods; and circular waste economy.  eThekwini’s climate action plan focusses on adaptation actions (biodiversity, food security, health, sea level rise and coastal protection and water and sanitation) and mitigation (energy, waste and pollution and transport).

In the months and years ahead the effects of climate variability and change will increasingly dominate our lives and so, as we head into this election season, we must ask of our leaders: are you ready to lead us through that change?